Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.